Delegates are due to gather in Antalya, Turkey, for COP31 amid war, an energy crisis and increasingly severe climate extremes. The negotiations will address climate finance for developing countries, adaptation, emissions reductions and the creation of a global just transition towards a cleaner economy.
The summit will have an unusual structure: Turkey is hosting the conference, while Australia is responsible for leading the negotiations. Turkey will also promote a broader action agenda focused on issues including electrification, oceans and green industrialisation.
An analysis of around 100 documents has mapped the positions of countries and negotiating blocs on the main issues before the conference. The resulting overview is intended as a living document that can be updated throughout COP31.
One of the key subjects will be the Belém-Antalya mechanism, established to support a just transition to a low-carbon economy. Although negotiators made progress on parts of the mechanism during talks in June, disagreements remain over its scope and whether it should be linked to financial support. Civil society groups have identified making the mechanism operational as a key expected outcome of COP31.
Climate finance is expected to be another major point of tension. Developing countries have backed a work programme designed to increase pressure on developed nations to provide public funding under Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement. Some parties have also proposed a burden-sharing system for climate-finance contributions.
The debate is taking place as major donors reduce aid budgets and the Trump administration in the United States pressures multilateral development banks to abandon their climate objectives. Developed countries generally favour a wider focus on improving access to existing funding and expanding the range of donors, positions also supported by some developing countries, including small-island states.
Negotiators are also discussing Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement through the Veredas dialogue. The provision concerns making global financial flows consistent with climate action, but countries disagree over its meaning. Developing countries have sought to keep the discussion focused on the financial responsibilities of wealthier nations.
Adaptation talks will address the global goal on adaptation. Countries agreed at COP30 on 59 indicators for measuring progress, but these still need to be refined before COP32 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Developing countries have stressed that adaptation finance must support practical action, rather than merely measure progress, and have sought reassurances over a pledge to triple adaptation finance.
Negotiators also failed to advance the mitigation work programme during the June talks. Parties disagreed over whether the programme should continue in the coming years or be closed, leaving the only formal agenda item focused on cutting greenhouse gas emissions unresolved.
The summit will further examine the implementation of the first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement. Agreed measures included moving away from fossil fuels, tripling renewable energy capacity and halting and reversing deforestation by 2030. These outcomes remain controversial for some large developing countries and economies dependent on fossil-fuel exports, while developing nations continue to argue that they need additional finance to carry them out.
Countries were expected to submit updated national climate plans, or NDCs, covering the period to 2035 and informed by the first global stocktake. So far, 150 parties, representing three-quarters of global emissions, have submitted new plans. Iran, Vietnam, Egypt and Argentina are among those that have not, while the United States has withdrawn its climate plan under the Trump administration. The European Union and other parties have called for new NDCs to be submitted before COP31 and aligned with the 1.5C temperature limit.
COP31 will also launch the second global stocktake, which is due to conclude in 2028.
Beyond the formal negotiations, Turkey is promoting targets related to electrification, waste reduction and lower emissions from buildings. Australia’s negotiating presidency may seek to include some of these objectives, including electrification, in a broader cover-text decision.
The action agenda is intended to complement the official talks by allowing governments and non-state actors to advance practical solutions. A new climate implementation bridge initiative will seek to translate NDC objectives into an investable portfolio of projects.
Ocean policy is also receiving support ahead of the summit. A joint letter signed by 105 parties called for COP31 to place oceans at the centre of climate action and incorporate ocean-based measures into the UN climate framework.
Sources: Carbon Brief.