Brazil has released a voluntary roadmap to help countries plan a transition away from coal, oil and gas. The framework says there is no single approach that suits every country: governments should first assess their reliance on fossil fuels and their capacity to change, then identify policies suited to their circumstances.
The roadmap follows debate at COP30 in Belém, where 85 countries called for a fossil-fuel transition plan to feature in the summit’s negotiated outcome. The proposal was not included after opposition from other countries. Brazil’s presidency instead said it would develop the roadmap outside the formal UN climate process. Countries are not required to follow or respond to it.
The framework proposes a voluntary “Belém readiness index” for countries to assess their fossil-fuel dependence and ability to transition. Based on that assessment, countries would be grouped into four “archetypes” and identify policy measures tailored to their needs. The roadmap also notes that the transition is both a climate and a development issue, particularly for emerging and developing economies.
It divides the proposed work into three phases. From now until 2028, efforts should focus on institutions and long-term signals. Between 2028 and 2030, the priority should be transforming energy systems. From 2031 to 2033, countries should scale up the transition. The final phase falls ten years after COP28 called on all countries to contribute to moving away from fossil fuels.
Brazil’s plan arrives shortly before COP31 in Antalya, Turkey. The summit’s co-presidents, Turkey and Australia, have prioritised increasing electricity’s share of global final energy consumption from almost 24% in 2023 to 35% by 2035. COP30 president André Aranha Corrêa do Lago described that goal as complementary to the roadmap.
The roadmap’s reception at COP31 remains uncertain. Brazil’s COP30 leadership did not predict how it would be taken up at the talks. International Institute for Sustainable Development adviser Natalie Jones said the next step should be governments setting out national transition plans and linking them to their climate pledges. She also said countries reliant on fossil-fuel revenues would need international finance and support to diversify their economies and sustain public services.
Sources: Carbon Brief.