Hybrid plants combining wind, solar and battery storage could supply up to 90% of Kazakhstan’s typical electricity demand at a delivered cost below $60/MWh, according to a new analysis by energy think tank Ember. Across the 15 sites studied, the average cost was $56/MWh, compared with a reported $70–170/MWh for new coal, depending on the region and technology.
The analysis comes as Kazakhstan faces rising demand and an ageing coal fleet. Electricity demand grew 16% over the past five years, while coal supplied 62% of generation in 2025. Ember says the country’s coal units are more than 50 years old on average and recorded 891 equipment incidents of varying severity between January and July this year.
Ember assessed 15 locations near major demand centres and existing power lines, spanning Kazakhstan’s three power zones. It tested 125 combinations of wind, solar and battery capacity at each site, running 1,875 simulations over a 30-year project life. The model used an hourly demand profile reflecting national patterns and scaled to a peak of 100 MW.
At the best-performing configurations, plants could meet 70% to 90% of demand hour by hour over the simulated period. The delivered-cost calculation includes the plant’s lifetime costs per megawatt-hour supplied, as well as the cost of curtailed generation.
Ember Senior Battery Analyst Kostantsa Rangelova told pv magazine that adding wind can improve the prospects of solar-plus-storage. Solar is inexpensive and quick to build in Kazakhstan, she said, and batteries can shift some output into the evening. However, cloudy winter days can reduce solar production when demand is high.
Wind resources offer a seasonal complement, according to Rangelova, because they are strongest during the winter months. The simulations deliberately oversize wind and solar generation and allow some output to be curtailed, reducing the amount of battery storage needed. Ember says the approach could enable plants to meet more than 70% of winter demand at most of the sites studied.
Rangelova said procurement auctions could request a specific supply profile and allow bidders to choose the lowest-cost combination of wind, solar and batteries. She also said battery projects should be able to earn revenue from balancing, reserve and capacity services, rather than being limited to shifting the output of their associated renewable plant.
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy reported in April that the country had 3.7 GW of cumulative renewable capacity, including 1.37 GW of solar. It planned to commission 245 MW of renewables during the year, including five solar projects with a combined capacity of 92.6 MW. Ember’s report estimates that wind and solar could reach 23% of electricity generation by 2035, up from 6% in 2025, with total renewable generation reaching 35%.
Sources: pv magazine.