China’s exports of clean-energy technologies are on track to avoid around 450 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions outside the country in 2026, according to an analysis prepared for Carbon Brief. The estimate is roughly equivalent to Brazil’s annual emissions from fossil fuels and represents nearly 2% of global emissions outside China.
The impact of these exports on overseas emissions rose 26% year on year in the first three quarters of 2026, following a 36% increase in 2025. The analysis considers the technologies’ effects in destination countries as well as emissions from manufacturing them in China. For 2025, it estimates that production caused about 170 million tonnes of CO2 in China, while the exported equipment avoided 370 million tonnes elsewhere—meaning the emissions from manufacturing were offset in around six months.
Shipments expanded across several product categories in the first three quarters of 2026. Exports of electric cars and heavy vehicles grew 61% year on year, while wind turbines rose 45%, batteries 39%, solar equipment 22% and electric two-wheelers 21%.
The analysis estimates that equipment exported in 2026 could avoid 8,400 million tonnes of CO2 over its lifetime. That is up from 6,800 million tonnes for 2025 exports and 5,000 million tonnes for 2024, and is equivalent to the annual emissions of the United States and India combined.
Solar equipment is the largest contributor to the projected lifetime savings. China’s wind and solar exports in 2026 are expected to generate about 800 terawatt-hours of electricity each year, comparable to the output of around 100 coal-fired power plants.
The benefits are concentrated in developing economies. The analysis finds that 76% of the lifetime emissions avoided by 2026 exports are expected to occur in the Global South, with 52% in South and Southeast Asia. The report attributes this to large export volumes, more carbon-intensive power grids and favourable solar conditions in some destination countries.
The analysis also says that Chinese clean-tech exports have generally supported market growth rather than displaced exports from other producers. It notes that this pattern varies by technology: Chinese wind exports have grown as exports from other producers declined globally, while other suppliers have expanded in some solar and heat-pump markets as Chinese products were redirected to new destinations.
China’s overseas clean-energy projects are also expanding, but their contribution remains small compared with equipment exports. The analysis says that, as of July 2026, 69 gigawatts of China-linked renewable energy capacity were operating abroad, with a further 100 gigawatts under construction.
Sources: Carbon Brief.