According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on October 27, the China Mono Premium assessment for mono-grade polysilicon used in n-type ingot production held steady at CNY 38.786 per kilogram, equivalent to $5.82/kg or CNY 0.081/W. Market participants indicate that the fundamental dynamics of the Chinese polysilicon sector remain static, characterized by a stalemate where upstream suppliers insist on full-cost-based pricing while downstream buyers show limited willingness to accept current rates. This impasse is further prolonged by inventory levels exceeding 500,000 metric tons.
A notable divergence exists between spot and futures markets, with futures prices remaining significantly below mainstream spot valuations. Data from the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on October 26 showed settlement prices for contracts delivering between November 2026 and October 2027 ranging from CNY 33.620/kg to CNY 37.180/kg. Even the highest futures price was approximately 4.14% lower than the latest spot assessment. Industry observers note that this gap provides a degree of balance, as customers with long-term agreements procure some material on the spot market at higher prices while offsetting costs by sourcing lower-priced polysilicon from futures traders.
Trade participants report that futures traders have been gradually liquidating previously accumulated stocks of low-priced polysilicon into the spot market, though this supply is expected to diminish over time. Manufacturers adhering to an industry self-discipline agreement appear determined not to sell below CNY 40/kg during the fourth quarter. As these lower-priced supplies dwindle and manufacturers maintain their pricing stance, futures prices are anticipated to rise gradually, potentially allowing spot transaction prices to find a new equilibrium. Separately, an industry source indicated that the China Photovoltaic Industry Association plans to organize monitoring activities to oversee production cuts scheduled for the fourth quarter, though no official confirmation was available at the time of reporting.
Looking ahead, upstream participants expect mainstream polysilicon offers to remain unchanged until the Lunar New Year in early February 2027. Meanwhile, prices from manufacturers not bound by the self-discipline agreement and futures prices are projected to stay below mainstream spot levels. In the global market outside China, the Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM) was assessed at $19.234/kg, or $0.040/W, unchanged from the previous week. Both manufacturers and buyers in this sector face mounting pressure, with some suppliers reducing their China-based sales teams to a handful of personnel due to weak demand.
On the demand side, an integrated manufacturer noted that certain long-term contract holders with cell manufacturing facilities in the U.S. could absorb approximately 300 metric tons of global polysilicon per month. While this volume offers some support, its contribution remains relatively small. Some long-term contract holders continue to purchase global polysilicon at a loss due to contractual obligations, despite poor financial conditions. However, pricing mechanisms embedded in contracts negotiated years ago provide buyers room to negotiate, potentially keeping these agreements active. In the near term, industry participants expect U.S.-produced material and lower-priced polysilicon from other origins to remain the primary global supply sources, alongside limited volumes of compliant Chinese polysilicon flowing into Southeast Asia under the Section 232 framework.
Sources: pv magazine.